Bayesian inference in group judgement formulation and decision making using qualitative controlled feedback.

Título inglés	Bayesian inference in group judgement formulation and decision making using qualitative controlled feedback.
Título español	Inferencia bayesiana en la formulación de juicio de grupos y toma de decisiones usando retroalimentación controlada cualitativa.
Autor/es	Press, S. James
Organización	Dep. Statist. Univ. California Riverside, Riverside (California), Estados Unidos
Revista	0041-0241
Publicación	1980, 31 (1): 397-415, 9 Ref.
Tipo de documento	articulo
Idioma	Inglés
Resumen inglés	This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about group judgements and group decisions using Qualitative Controlled Feedback, from the Bayesian point of view. The qualitative controlled feedback procedure was first introduced by Press (1978), for a single question of interest. The procedure in first reviewed here including the extension of the model to the multiple question case. We develop a model for responses of the panel on each stage. Many questions are treated simultaneously and an autoregressive model is developed for explaining the responses of the group members as a function of the feedback. The errors are assumed to follow a matrix intraclass covariance structure. Marginal and conditional posterior distributions of the regression coefficient vector are found in both small and large samples. The broadly defined generic family of multidimensional Student-t distributions is found to play a major role in the results.
Clasificación UNESCO	120913 ; 120904
Palabras clave español	Inferencia bayesiana ; Teoría de la decisión ; Retroalimentación
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